Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) - Impact analysis Amsterdam
Thursday, 21 September 2017
- the impact of self-driving vehicles on the city's amenities
- which interventions would be useful to maximise benefits and minimise disadvantages.
- The technology is expected to be ready around 2025 for not too complex traffic situations, such as motorways and arterial roads.
- No significant barriers are expected economically. Currently, some 25% of Dutch consumers say they are willing to pay EUR 5,000 extra for SDV features. Se we can expect enough early-adopters to launch SDV technology.
- Legislation is not expected to be a bottleneck for introducing SDVs.
- private cars
- self-driving taxis
- self-driving mini busses.
With these models and propositions, the dividing line between public and private transport will gradually disappear.
- The cost for travel in a self-driving car (SDC) and self-driving taxi (SDT) will be comparable to the vehicles currently in use.
- The cost of travel in a self-driving bus (SDB) will be lower than current public transport.
From the BCG impact analysis you may conclude that SDVs will have a major impact on the city of Amsterdam, but not in the short term. What's more, not all impacts will be favourable.
The current infrastructure and the public transport network is complex and the number of traffic movements will only increase. Without SDVs, traffic density is already a major concern for the city.
- SDVs on motorways only
- SDVs also on arterial roads
- SDVs everywhere in the city
- SDVs journey/vehicle sharing everywhere in the city
In order to work out the scenarios, a baseline case study was needed. In the baseline case study (from 2015 to 2050) car kilometres will grow by about 50%, from 12 million to 19 million. This growth will be organic (due to population growth, for example). For the sake of the study, it is assumed that the capacity problems identified will be resolved.
Base case car kilometres growth from 2015 to 2050
- People will switch from regular car and train to SDV.
- Bus, tram and metro travellers will also switch to SDV.
- 30% of cyclists will switch to SDV.
In scenario 1 the number of kilometres travelled by road will also increase, from 30% to 36%, as many people will switch from regular a car to a SDV (which will still need to be driven manually in the city) and 30% of train travellers will switch to a SDV.
Drastic modality change in scenarios 2 and 3 - more road km in the city
- Complexity: traffic will grind to a halt with large quantities of pedestrians, cyclists and SDVs. Additionally, some pedestrians and cyclists will take advantage of knowing that SDVs will stop.
- Capacity: the switch to SDVs causes extra traffic. The capacity of the access roads in particular will not be sufficient.
- Simplify complex traffic situations by separating modalities
- Penalise jaywalkers
- Encourage use of SDBs
- Open public transport lanes toSDVs
- Transform parking spaces along access roads to extra taffic lanes
- Encourage journey sharing
- SDVs are coming, they will be used on local roads, not just on motorways.
- It is advisable to develop a vision to give direction to possible interventions:
- How to facilitate the growing demand of vehicles on the road?
- How to nudge travellers towards journey/vehicle sharing (scenario 3b)?
- Will SDVs be facilitated on arterial roads only, or everywhere?
- Will city councils proceed pro-actively or gradually?