The automotive revolution is speeding up (2)
Monday, 4 December 2017
A perspective on the emerging personal mobility landscape
Although the overall industry is expected to continue its path of growth, the range of possibilities for the future is broad. The variation in revenue potential across the six market scenarios could be almost 40 percent. This may be driven strongly by the likelihood and ability of evolving disruptive technologies to unlock new use cases and value within the personal-mobility landscape. While more traditional revenue sources could also show some variance in their prospective growth, they will likely prove to be more stable than the revenue sources from disruptive technologies (Exhibit 2).
Of the outlined scenarios, our research, recent developments, and conversations with players across the personal-mobility landscape led us to believe a more disruptive development is most likely. We’ll consider the “disruption to personal mobility” scenario the new base case, in which the overall industry could have the potential to grow 4 to 5 percent annually, doubling in size to roughly $6.6 trillion by 2030.